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Why Biden Will Win Re-Election And How To Stop Worrying !

I know that many democrats are very worried about the upcoming election.  Here are a few of the concerns I have heard:

  • “I am so worried that Trump will win and that will end our democracy”

  • “Joe Biden is too old and I don’t think he can win.  Can you find a younger replacement ?”

  • “Ben Cline is a do nothing MAGA fruitcake.”

  • “Trump is doing whatever he wants and nobody is stopping him.”

  • “I want to get Trump off the ballot but I am afraid that Nikki Haley will beat Biden.”

  • Many others

Believe me, I am also worried but I have quite a lot of faith in the quiet Americans who are not constantly in our faces spewing noise and lies. Let's further discuss why Biden will win re-election.

From Steve Bannon's playbook, the Republicans are trying to flood the zone with misinformation, lies and noise in an effort to confuse and demoralize people and energize their base.  If you can’t tell what is real and what is the truth then people will lose faith in the system and will not want to participate.  

So, let's look at some positives and start with some recent polling out of the New Hampshire primary:

  • According to a CNN New Hampshire Primary exit poll, 40% of Nikki Haley voters voted for her because they did not want Trump.

  • In the New Hampshire Republican Primary

    • 43% of Republicans voted against Trump

    • 65% of undeclared voters chose Haley over Trump.

    • Only 51% of Republicans (compared to 66% in Iowa) are election deniers (which means that 49% are NOT election deniers.

    • 67% opposed a federal law banning most or all abortions

    • 42% of voters said Trump wouldn’t be fit to serve as president if he’s convicted of a crime — up from 31 percent in Iowa.

  • In the New Hampshire Democratic Primary - Biden won the Democratic primary overwhelmingly, despite not campaigning in the state and his name not appearing on the ballot.  Biden had 65% of the vote through write-in ballots.

  • Here is another data point regarding the anti-Trump Republicans.  Immediately after Trump threw a hissy fit (after the New Hampshire primary when he threatened donors if they give money to anyone other than himself) donors all over the country immediately gave over $2.5 million to Haley’s campaign and gave Trump the big middle finger.  

These results indicate that there are a lot of Republicans and Independents who are anti-Trump and not necessarily pro-Haley.  These anti-Trumpers are likely to vote for Biden in a Trump vs Biden matchup.  See some of them in this Lincoln Project video - These are the voters Trump should be afraid of.

Worried about Haley vs Biden ?  First, Haley is not as moderate as she appears and the evidence (her own statements) would emerge during a general election campaign.  Haley may appeal to some moderate Republicans and independents but hard core diehard MAGA Trump fans will likely stay home rather than vote for Haley since she is not MAGA enough and she has been dissing Trump. 

Heck, it wouldn’t surprise me at all if Trump told his fans to NOT vote in the November general election if he loses the Republican nomination (or is in jail).

What about other positives for our side ?  We have had a winning streak since doomsday in 2016:

  • A whopping takeover of the US House of Representatives in 2018 and the ascension of Nancy Pelosi to speaker (she did a very effective job of needling Trump and passing legislation).

Nancy Pelosi Lectures Trump in the White House
Pelosi Lectures Trump. White House photo by Shealah Craighead.

  • Biden defeated Trump in 2020 by 7 million votes and an electoral count margin of 306-232 (270 is needed).

  • Democrats gained control of the US Senate in 2020

  • The "RED WAVE” (a right wing media manufactured talking point) in the 2022 midterm congressional elections sputtered and only left Republicans in the House with a very slim margin when, historically, the party that does not control the presidency typically gained 20-30 House seats.

  • Abortion - the residents of numerous Republican states have voted against MAGA to send a message that they want to keep their abortion, privacy and healthcare rights and they do NOT like their personal freedoms being taken away. These states include Kansas, Kentucky, Ohio, Vermont, California, Michigan, Virginia (not a direct vote on abortion but Democrats elected to control the legislature), Wisconsin (not a direct vote on abortion but voters elected a liberal Supreme Court judge which shifted the balance of power to strengthen abortion and voting rights).  

  • Democrats are likely to pick up as many as 10-16 House seats because of court reversals of unfair Republican gerrymandering in states like New York, Louisiana, Alabama, Georgia, Texas and others.  Wisconsin will also be re-writing their congressional maps for 2024 in that severely gerrymandered state.  This kind of Voting Rights Act litigation takes a while.  

  • Younger voters and women have supported Democrats in droves in each election since 2018 and especially in elections about abortion.

  • Democrats have also been overperforming in dozens of special elections in the past 2 years - a good recent example of this is that Democrats flipped a Republican state House seat in a special election in FLORIDA !  The winning Democratic candidate garnered between 65 and 70 percent of independent voters and some moderate Republicans in a generally Republican district in FLORIDA !  The Republican candidate ran on the typical culture war issues (fighting against wokeness, "trans-education", indoctrinating children, cracking down on immigrants, etc) and the Democrat ran on increasing abortion access and decreasing property insurance rates.

  • And this does not include the legislative accomplishments from the Democrats such as the Inflation Reduction Act, the first gun safety bill in 30 years, Bipartisan Infrastructure Act, etc.

  • Nor does this include the Democratic economic accomplishments including recovering from the worldwide pandemic without a recession (sorry Youngkin that your prediction of a recession in 2023 was incorrect), setting records for full employment, decreasing inflation, etc.

What does the other side have to show for themselves ?  Numerous examples of Republicans shooting themselves in the foot (henceforth to be known as a "ballistic pedicure") and other negatives of their own making:

  • 91 felony counts against the orange one

  • So far, 4 big court judgments against the orange one:

    • The Trump Organization has been convicted of long running tax fraud and the CFO sent to prison, 

    • Two judgments that Trump personally had sexually abused a woman and repeatedly defamed her resulting in a total of $88 million in damages against him.  

    • A judge in New York has found that Trump and sons are guilty of having engaged in a case of long standing business fraud with final judgment pending (potentially $370 million in fines, closing all of his businesses in New York state and banning Trump from ever doing real estate business again in that state).   

  • 1000+ Jan 6 rioters indicted or convicted

  • The Republican Speaker of the House election fiascos - twice

  • The Florida State Republican Chairman was removed after a sexual assault accusation.  In addition, he and his ultraconservative Moms for Liberty wife were participating in a longstanding sexual relationship with another woman - this apparently did not coincide with his professed conservative and traditional beliefs.

  • House Republicans supported George Santos before finally kicking him out of Congress after he threatened to spill the beans.

  • Human cruelty and endangerment of legal (and illegal) immigrants by Governors Greg Abbott (Texas) and DeSantis (Florida) by tricking and drop shipping them to different cities and states without plans to guarantee their safety once they arrive (for instance, sending a bus load of immigrants to be dumped in front of Kamala Harris's house in Washington DC in winter without having notified local authorities - do you think that they had winter coats after being from Texas ?).

  • Severe ethical lapses regarding several Supreme Court Justices (billionaires paying for expensive trips and other perks multimillion dollar perks)

  • A female Colorado Congresswoman on tape misbehaving in a theater, getting thrown out, then lying about it.

  • More proposed cruelty from Trump and his ilk saying that, if re-elected, they will build massive detention camps ready to hoover up immigrants (even long standing immigrants) all over the country to facilitate deportation.  He wants to ban immigration from targeted countries and religions. Sound familiar ?  It should since the US created detention camps for anyone of Japanese ancestry (even if they were US citizens) during World War II and the far worse example of Nazi concentration camps during the same period.

  • And all this does not include their standard policies (if you can call them that):  

    • Tax cuts for the rich and corporations, 

    • Destroying the regulatory system in the US (you know those experts in the government who approve safe medications and food, guard the environment, promote safe vehicles, prosecute corporations and others who abuse you, and do many other things that help you stay safe), 

    • Restrict voting rights in the name of election integrity (even though there is no evidence)

    • Restrict your personal rights - who you can love and your rights to your own body

    • Rule you rather than represent you

    • Stripping health insurance for 21+ million Americans by repealing Obamacare (Affordable Care Act).  This would include stripping your insurance protections including protections from pre-existing conditions insurance denials, preventative coverage such as mammograms, other cancer screenings, etc.  Remember that Republicans had tried for 10 years to repeal the ACA and failed because Democrats fought back.

    • Banning books

    • On and on.

So what does all this mean ?

It means that there is hope and that there are many many quiet Americans who realize there is no comparison between Trump and Biden and that they will do the right thing to preserve our democracy.  These Americans believe in fairness and the rule of law and, even if they wish for better choices, they will vote for the best person available.  We know that life and democracy are not perfect and that we need to fight for it and the future.  

One of the best treatments for anxiety, worry and depression is getting involved and doing something.  Talk to family, friends and neighbors and get out there and fight for our democracy. 

Don’t listen to the noise, double check everything, correct the misinformation when you hear it and fight back !

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